Cynefin: The Decision-Making Tool Every Operator Needs

Not all problems are the same type of problem

Photo by Ashkan Forouzani

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Not all problems are the same types of problem.

The biggest mistake you can make as an operator is to treat a complex situation as if it were merely a complicated one. Every problem lives somewhere — and where it lives determines how you should respond to it. The Cynefin Framework is a decision-making tool developed by David Snowden at IBM in the late 1990s. Its name comes from the Welsh word “habitat” or “place of belonging,” and there are five domains which help you categorise what type of problem you’re facing.

Domain 1: Clear

These are the problems where cause and effect are obvious to anyone paying attention. The rules are known, best practices exist, and you just need to follow them. The approach is: sense → categorise → respond.

For my construction business, this can be anything covered by a standard, code, or regulation. We have risk assessments and method statements to help mitigate and control risks and hazards. We follow building regulations set by the UK government or the HSE for safety and quality control. Fire door specifications or concrete mix ratios are pre-determined against rigorous testing. There’s no debate about the right answer — you just have to apply the known procedure. When dealing with novelty, if you reach for a solution that won’t fit, it simply won’t work.

The risk here for operators is complacency: you cannot treat all problems like they’re Clear problems.

Domain 2: Complicated

Cause and effect still exist, but you need expert analysis to identify them. The answer isn’t obvious, but it is knowable — given the right expertise. The approach is: sense → analyse → respond.

Just this week one of my site managers came across a complicated problem but didn’t know how to respond, because she determined she lacked the knowledge to answer it. She thought this was a Clear domain problem. The question came from a specialist subcontractor about the design of their bolts for anchoring down the steel to the new foundation. It isn’t a question we’re qualified to answer — hence structural engineers being part of the design team. The only solution was to tell her to remove the stress of having to deal with this and get confirmation from the expert — which in this case was the structural engineer.

Complicated domains need experts. The data and logic are there — but somebody who knows how to sieve through it and correctly analyse it is needed. It’s the territory of experts and professionals, where there could be more than one good answer — but both come from rigorous analysis.

Domain 3: Complex

Here’s where most interesting business and investment decisions actually live, and where most leaders get into trouble. In Complex systems, cause and effect can only be understood in retrospect. You can’t analyse your way to the answer in advance because the system itself changes in response to what you do. The approach shifts: probe → sense → respond.

Capital cycles aren’t predictable by modelling. I can observe signals of where I believe the UK construction industry is within that cycle, but I can never be 100% sure we’re at the bottom or the top. I can only plan for such eventualities and remain adaptive. The danger in Complex terrain is demanding certainty before acting — or, equally bad, using one successful probe as evidence of a repeatable formula. The system keeps moving. Treating the current shortage of raw materials because of the Iran/Israel/America conflict as a Clear or Complicated domain problem means I am either trying to analyse a moving target and will act too slowly, or treating the issue as having a standardised process and making erroneous decisions.

Domain 4: Chaotic

Cause and effect have no relationship at all — there’s no time to analyse. You need to act immediately to establish some kind of order, then move into sense-making. The approach is: act → sense → respond.

Here, you act to contain, stabilise, and prevent further harm or problems. My Royal Marines background is instructive here: the ability to act under pressure without complete information, establish some order, and then begin to understand what happened. Operators who freeze because they want more data in Chaotic situations make things worse. What’s the absolute worst thing that could happen within your business — a complete shit show where the consequences are extreme? That’s this domain.

Domain 5: Disorder

This is the most dangerous domain, and the least discussed. It’s not a type of problem — it’s the state of not knowing which domain you’re in. When people are in Disorder, they default to their comfort zone. The expert reaches for analysis. The instinct-driven operator acts before sensing. The process-follower looks for a procedure. Most bad decisions happen here — not because people are stupid, but from misdiagnosis.

The Central Lesson

The framework’s real value comes from having a clear understanding of the boundaries. Clear problems can become Chaotic if you become complacent. Seeking certainty before action confuses Complex problems with Complicated. And the instinct to treat everything as Complicated — to keep hiring more consultants, to run more analysis — is a particular trap for intelligent, analytical people.

The diagnostic question worth keeping in your back pocket: “Am I analysing this, or am I experimenting with it?” If you need to experiment to find out, you’re in Complex terrain — and your job is to design good probes, not better analysis.

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Incase you missed it

This week i’ve been digging back into systems thinking; mainly understanding how to diagnose and alter feedback loops. Essential reading for those wanting to understand the drivers behind their business behaviours.

Until next time, Karl.

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