The Rumsfeld Matrix Explained
A simple, but powerful tool for managing uncertainty
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“There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
- Donald Rumsfeld
The term ‘Rumsfeld Matrix’ was coined in 2002 after Donald Rumsfeld, the then-US Secretary of Defence, held a press conference about the Iraq war. Initially, his words were met with confusion, but over time, they have been adopted and expanded beyond military strategy to business management, education, and personal development.
While Donald Rumsfeld popularised this framework in 2002 the idea of ‘known unknowns’ can be traced back to Socrates and his famous line, “I know that I know nothing.”
At its heart, the matrix operates at the intersection of epistemology (the theory of knowledge) and decision theory and reflects how individuals and organisations process information under uncertainty.
The matrix divides knowledge into four categories or quadrants:
Known Knowns: Things we explicitly know such as facts, information or skills we know we possess.
Known Unknowns: These are things we don’t know, such as gaps in our knowledge that we have already identified.
Unknown Knowns: Things we don’t know that we know.
Unknown Unknowns: Things we aren’t aware we do not know.
Using this tool to map out what you know and don’t know can enable you to make more informed and effective decisions under uncertainty.
Let’s review a basic example from my job this week.
My construction company is undertaking a large hardscaping project at a busy shopping centre. Information as to what existing underground services are in the area is unknown, which puts my team at risk of accidentally hitting a service, causing potential injury, property damage and losses for the shops that will have to temporarily close whilst it’s being fixed.
I used the Rumsfeld Matrix as follows:
Known Knowns: I know there has to be underground services within my working boundary, and that a risk assessment has to factor this in and control measures put in place.
Known Unknowns: The extent, type and location of services within my working boundary.
Unknown Knowns: Information that is held ‘somewhere’ detailing exactly what services are in the area as well as their location and depths.
Unknown Unknowns: Poor or incorrect workmanship and laying of services that could cause potential harm or delays.
From this, the first port of call was to ask the client for any information they had about the existing services– which was zero. The second reasonable step was to contact the energy and data service providers to get what information they had. Which was limited and insufficient. The only 2 reasonable steps left were to either perform an archaeological dig which would slow things down, cause delays and inflate costs or conduct a GPR (Ground Penetrating Radar) survey which would take 1 day and would accurately detail every single service in the area.
That was a fairly easy example, but going through the steps from known information, to unknown information, forces you to address the gaps in your knowledge. Typically we skip the step of identifying what we don’t know and focus only on what we explicitly do know, especially when facing uncertainty.
The Unknown Known category, can naturally be difficult to grasp at first because if you know something then it’s not unknown right? A very basic analogy to help illustrate this concept could be riding a bicycle. I haven’t ridden a bike since I was in my late teens, but I know I could ride a bike if I jumped on one. I also don’t know the physics of riding a bike but again, I don’t need to to just ride the bike. A simplification of this concept could be to say, “Something that hasn’t yet been formalised.”
A person who wishes to become a writer might not have any formal writing education but may nevertheless have a natural talent and take to it like a duck in water. Speaking of ducks, they don’t go through duck swimming school, they are simply born and learn to swim. People have all kinds of capacity to do things that they don’t because they aren’t aware of it, and therefore don’t try.
The difficulty with unknown knowns is bringing them to light and turning them into known knowns so they can be shared and adopted by others.
Let’s walk through another example, but this time go into a bit more detail. Suppose I have a meeting with the two other co-owners of the company and we conclude that our aim over the next 3 years is to double our revenue. Let’s apply the Rumsfeld Matrix to the question “How do we double our revenue in the next 3 years?”
To double our revenue several things will need to happen in isolation or tandem;
Known Knowns: An increase in the number of projects, an increase in revenue per project, and an increase in staffing, resources and owned assets to fulfil the increased number of projects. The company will also need more cash to fund the new capacity requirements. We also know our current revenue figures, how much we’ve grown over the last 11 years, and what the industry average is.
Known Unknowns: Economic and industry volatility, new or updated regulations, staff turnover, future staffing capacity to deliver, labour shortages, tax increases, extreme weather events, material science advancements and what services will turn out most profitable.
Unknown Knowns: Underutilised relationships with existing partners or associates, hidden inefficiencies within the current organisational setup, tacit expertise within our current team that hasn’t yet been formalised, cost savings with existing or new suppliers, where leverage can be applied, and unrecognised competitive advantages to exploit.
Unknown Unknowns: Black swan events, emerging competitors, regulatory or client changes that could present opportunities, economic or social change that could create demand, materials that could deliver more efficiency or profitability, hidden market segments that are currently under delivered and novel business models such as the EV boom that has to be facilitated by construction workers installing the infrastructure.
There are a lot of potential avenues for my company to go there and I would argue that those answers would and could apply to most businesses or individuals. Are you a one-person content creator struggling to make a mark and be heard? What underutilised relationships are you not exploiting? If you don’t have any that’s fine because that’s your new starting point. Where are the inefficiencies in your current workflow? Cut before you add anything new or look for avenues to leverage your time and productivity.
One of the benefits of understanding your known knowns, and moving unknowns, to knowns, is that you can create systems around them. The curious mind can seek out these unknown knowns and turn implicit knowledge into explicit that can be shared, multiplied and leveraged.
Until next time, Karl (The School of Knowledge).
Whenever you’re ready
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The fourth quadrant is the most dangerously from a legal standpoint. It’s called “constructive notice,” facts you are presumed to have been aware of and acted on. It’s particularly pernicious in the context of organizational email archives with their discovery treasure trove of unread emails.
Respectfully, this has been around long before Rumsfeld. I was first introduced to this quote in the 90's through Landmark education as part of their curriculum, but I am sure they go it from somewhere else.